BPN Feed

ADT sees a strong decrease of 10% in their SAC (subscriber acquisition cost), thanks to decreases in residential and SMB installation. This will likely continue as they optimize acquisition costs across security and solar offerings in the residential market.

Through expanding product offerings and strong sales and marketing, ADT has been able to growth their average revenue per installation by 4% to $39K.

ADT has seen rapid growth in its solar business with 50% user growth. Driving Q2 2022 revenue to over $215M.

Through new products like Google Nest as well as other additions and marketing efforts, ADT grew subscribers by ~2% year over year

ADT hits projections and sets the bar high looking out to 2025, with goals to roughly double 2021 revenue and free cash flow by year-end 2025.

By only converting 0.5% of their consumer and SMB customers, ADT could capture 5% plus of the solar market.

ADT has ~260K commercial clients and while this isn't a major growth driver for the business, they could continue to see greater than 6% year on year growth if they prove to be radically differentiated from other corporate offerings.

Through the Google Nest partnership and overall market tailwinds, ADT is seeing an expansion of its TAM. There are 140M homes in the US today, ADT asserts that their TAM is ~130M. We believe there needs to be a major haircut to this number in order to only account for homes which could afford to install the ADT products, even with a lower-cost product thanks to the Google Nest partnership

Sam Savage says: In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. In the land of averages, the same can be said of the man with the wrong distribution.

Doug Hubbard says: If you are doing it in your head, you ARE using a model. Calibrate your own estimates, then compare them to other modeling methods. You’ll be surprised how inconsistent you are without quantitative measurement.

The Pentagon has not changed its assessment that China is not planning to invade Taiwan in the next two years, the Defense Department’s top policy office said Monday, despite Beijing’s launching unprecedented military drills around the island last week.