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Empirical research on past returns shows that identifying investments' upside skew matters much more than identifying their base case return
View above about Model Issue: Value of Quantifying Stories in Scenarios
When stated in terms of lifetime dollar wealth creation, the best-performing four percent of listed companies explain the net gain for the entire U.S. stock market since 1926, as other stocks collectively matched Treasury bills. These results highlight the important role of positive skewness in the distribution of individual stock returns, attributable both to skewness in monthly returns and to the effects of compounding . . . The results in this paper imply that the returns to active stock selection can be very large, if the investor is either fortunate or skilled enough to select a concentrated portfolio containing stocks that go on to earn extreme positive returns.
Monthly active users is likely to be a fraction of annual active users
View above about Model Issue: Prospective MAU for virtual goods purchases in EA sports videogames
Use this table to research & handicap the timing & odds for expanding players at specific game publishers after landing them
View above about Research Category: Dashboards for virtualgoods.shop
Because we can handicap differentiation in numerous target Market Segments, we can connect the odds for how much each customer can expand over the years after landing them. Each customer's cost of expansion and peak economics is different, but they are not wholly unrelated and diversified. By attaching research to this table that is connected to the big picture, we can produce odds that are useful to the big picture for investment returns.
Use this table to research & handicap the timing & odds for landing specific game publishers given differentiation in their Market Segments
View above about Research Category: Dashboards for virtualgoods.shop
Because we can handicap differentiation in numerous target Market Segments, we can connect the odds for success with specific customers in the same Market Segment, enabling us to handicap odds for total sales resulting from the CRM sales pipeline that CRM systems do not usually support, given their assumption of statistical independence between deals. We can also attach research to our judgments about odds and timing for each sales stage in order to make those judgments more insightful.
Tiger Woods' partnership with 2K Sports increases prospective players VGS may target in sports video games outside of EA Sports
View above about Model Issue: Prospective MAU for virtual goods purchases in Other sports videogames
Tiger Woods will once again be the face of golf's biggest video game franchise. On Tuesday, 2K announced it has agree to an exclusive, long-term partnership with Woods. In addition, 2K announced that the company has agreed to acquire HB Studios Multimedia Ltd., which is the studio that developed "PGA Tour 2K21" as well as "The Golf Club" franchise.
In golf games Woods has been involved with in the past, such as his namesake series that EA Sports produced in the early 2000s, pro golfers were included in the game and also playable.
Woods' return to the video-game world is anticipated to increase the user base for the PGA Tour franchise within 2K Sports. Given VGS's success with EA Sports, VGS is well positioned to capitalize on delivering in-game content for Tiger Woods and other professional golfers within the game.
Use this to update research & judgments about the revenue sensitivity of virtualgoods.shop's other expenses and balance sheet
View above about Research Category: Dashboards for virtualgoods.shop
CAC / new MAU is in the previously-posted Input Table about economics for major client prospects and for overall market segments, and those costs are added to the judgments in this table, which model operating leverage by increasing other expenses as a percent of the next 12 months' revenue increase ("incremental revenue"), driving those other expenses’ percent of total revenue down to a long-term asymptote expressed as a minimum percent of total revenue.
That expenses minimum percent of total revenue helps produce a peak operating margin when growth slows and the business may become a cash cow, and that is an important driver of valuation. For example, an enterprise SaaS company's sales costs may be very high as a percent of revenue while it is growing but very low at peak when a later owner decides to cash-cow it, and that can a big driver of current owners' willingness to pay high multiples far in advance of that peak.
Balance sheet sensitivity to revenue growth can also have an important effect on long-term cash flow. For example, an enterprise SaaS company may have high Deferred Revenue days of sales, representing getting paid in cash long before the company finishes delivering a service, and that enables it to produce far better cash flow relative to net income, especially during high growth, which further increases the multiples that investors are willing to pay.
Sales productivity drives Box's FY21 operating margins to significantly outperform expectations with >13% YoY growth
View above about Research Category: Profitability and Margins for Box, Inc.
Operating margins for Box steadily increased throughout 2021's fiscal year quarters: 9.4%, 15.6%, 18%, and 18.3%. Overall, Box reported a 15.4% operating margin for the most recent fiscal year. In the previous year, Box reported a 1.3% operating margin.
What drove improvement in operating profitability? Reduced expenses in sales & marketing. Overall, sales & marketing decreased 16% throughout the 2021 fiscal year. Despite this, total revenue still increased > 10%.
EA is launching new initiatives with a goal to increase annual active users from > 230M in 2020 to > 500M by 2025
View above about Model Issue: Prospective MAU for virtual goods purchases in EA sports videogames
Research Category: TAM and Industry Trends for virtualgoods.shop
With the strength of our EA SPORTS franchises, and these announcements today, we are in position to deliver the world’s best sports games and content. We intend to leverage our capabilities in this space to grow to more sports and more experiences, reaching larger audiences in more markets all over the world. These announcements today are just the beginning. For 230 million EA SPORTS players and viewers, we are providing the social network that enables them to experience more of the sports they love with their friends. We believe we can grow to 500 million players and viewers in EA SPORTS experiences over the next five years. The future of entertainment is interactive, and the future of sports will continue to blur the lines between live sports and immersive and engaging new experiences. EA SPORTS is at the center of this convergence, and in collaboration with our amazing league partners, we are prepared to accelerate the future of sports entertainment.
If virtualgoods.shop's platform is one of many options, as are developers on Roblox, its take could be like Roblox developers' 24.5%
View above about Model Issue: Peak take rate in EA sports videogames if virtualgoods.shop does Not offer a material improvement there
Developer Economics: On Roblox, you get everything necessary to build, publish, and operate at scale. Cost-effective access to large, growing audience Hosting with real-time scalability Platform-wide customer support and moderation for all ages Cross-platform enabled when you publish your game Sophisticated physics and simulation engine Integrated monetization and payment solution Localization tools
Where Does the Money Go? When you start developing on the Roblox platform, you pay no fees to use our tools or platform services. You earn revenue when you add monetization in your game and that is earned via our virtual currency Robux. The following chart summarizes the costs breakdown on the Roblox platform.
If virtualgoods.shop's platform is critical to virtual goods sales, its take could be like Roblox's 50.5% instead of like Roblox developers'
View above about Model Issue: Peak take rate in EA sports videogames if virtualgoods.shop offers a Radical improvement there
Developer Economics: On Roblox, you get everything necessary to build, publish, and operate at scale. Cost-effective access to large, growing audience Hosting with real-time scalability Platform-wide customer support and moderation for all ages Cross-platform enabled when you publish your game Sophisticated physics and simulation engine Integrated monetization and payment solution Localization tools
Where Does the Money Go? When you start developing on the Roblox platform, you pay no fees to use our tools or platform services. You earn revenue when you add monetization in your game and that is earned via our virtual currency Robux. The following chart summarizes the costs breakdown on the Roblox platform.