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Miley Cyrus partners with skincare brand Hers in new campaign
View above about Model Issue: Odds HIMS is One of a Few providers in Core Female
Miley Cyrus has proven time and time again that she is all about confidence, self-love, and individuality, so her new partnership with healthcare brand Hers comes as no surprise. The singer became a creative advisor for Hims & Hers this year. Cyrus finally made her campaign debut, highlighting their customizable skincare line.
We are asserting that outlier low expectations for near-term growth make it very likely, but not certain, that markets flip to "fear mode"
View above about Model Issue: High risk aversion conditional on Expected NTM US real GDP growth below range
"Percent of 2 years from now" evaluates as 0% today & 100% in 2 yrs, changing these odds from certainty today to the asserted odds in 2 yrs
View above about Model Issue: Low risk aversion conditional on Expected NTM US real GDP growth below range
Many consider growth expectations more than 50bps below the US average of about 2% as outlier "low" and more than 100bps as outlier "high"
View above about Model Issue: Ranges for NTM US real GDP growth
Near-term economic growth expectations are still hot but are likely to moderate as the Fed leans against the momentum over the next 2 years
View above about Model Issue: NTM US real GDP growth
Macro investor Bridgewater estimates that the mid-cycle expansion phase typically lasts 3-4 quarters on average
View above about Model Issue: Length in quarters of Mid-cycle expansion phase that started after COVID underutilization was largely corrected in early-cycle
This is typically followed by what I call the “mid-cycle” (which lasts an average of three or four quarters) when economic growth slows substantially (i.e., to around 2%), inflation remains low, growth in consumption slows, the rate of inventory accumulation declines, interest rates dip, the stock market rate of increase tapers off, and the rate of decline in inflation-hedge assets slows.
These cycles use the framework of Bridgewater, the world's largest macro fund, which cites typical early-cycle length of 5-6 quarters
View above about Model Issue: Length in quarters of early-cycle expansion that started in March 2020 at the COVID trough
The “early-cycle” (which typically lasts about five or six quarters), typically begins with the demand for interest rate sensitive items (e.g., housing and cars) and retail sales picking up because of low interest rates and lots of available credit. It is also supported by prior inventory liquidations stopping and inventory rebuilding starting. This increased demand and rising production pulls the average workweek and then employment up. Credit growth is typically fast, economic growth is strong (i.e., in excess of 4%), inflation is low, growth in consumption is strong, the rate of inventory accumulation is increasing, the U.S. stock market is typically the best investment (because there is fast growth and interest rates aren’t rising because inflation isn’t rising) and inflation-hedge assets and commodities are the worst-performing assets.
Bullard advocates accelerating tapering to less than 2 quarters to provide optionality to starting raising rates if inflation persists
View above about Model Issue: Length in quarters for next tightening phase in the US
He has long urged the central bank to withdraw its stimulus quickly in order to ensure it has the flexibility to raise interest rates next year should inflation turn out to be even more persistent than expected.
“Many have said that once you get into 2022 inflation will moderate. There is a case to be made for that, but there’s also a case to be made that it won’t moderate and may go in the other direction [due to] additional supply constraints coming from international sources now because of the Delta variant,” he said.
To give the Fed “optionality” to raise interest rates in 2022, the Fed should wrap up its asset purchases by the end of the first quarter, Bullard added. Another reason to taper quickly is the “incipient housing bubble” that might be fuelled in part by the Fed’s ultra-loose monetary policy, Bullard said. Prices have surged in recent months, with the latest national home data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller pointing to a 18.6 per cent increase from June 2020.
CBO forecasts 1.7% annual productivity growth in the 2020s but some arguments suggest > the 3% in 1996-2004
View above about Model Issue: 10-year US real GDP growth conditional on Low risk aversion
Conditions are ripe for productivity to remain elevated for years to come, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs and the McKinsey Global Institute. As policymakers run the economy hot, there’s heavy demand for products and services. There is also a worker shortage, which is forcing companies to innovate even more as they struggle to find enough employees to fill a record 10 million job openings. If a robot can do someone’s job, companies are trying it.
Some economists even say the United States could be on verge of a productivity boom not seen since the late 1990s.
“America used to do a lot more public investment and it used to grow faster. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. It seems like we are reentering an era of public investment,” said professor Erik Brynjolfsson, director of Stanford University’s Digital Economy Lab. He forecasts “a productivity surge that will match or surpass the boom times of the 1990s.”
Worker productivity averaged 3.1 percent from 1996 to 2004, according to Labor Department data, largely due to the personal computing revolution.
Economists have learned that new technological breakthroughs usually don’t cause a jump in productivity right away. The technology needs time to marinate so companies can test how best to deploy it in their industry. Brynjolfsson argues artificial intelligence and machine learning have now simmered long enough to make a dramatic difference. Others are not as convinced.
Next tightening phase may have sharper drop because deficit went from $1T in 2019 to $3T in each of 2020 & 2021 but is back to $1T in 2022
View above about Model Issue: US real GDP gap % change during ST debt phase relative to mean and phase 4
The U.S. government spent at least $5.2 trillion to combat the covid-19 crisis. It stands as one of the most expensive, ambitious experiments in U.S. history. And it succeeded.
. . . The $5.2 trillion total is the estimated impact on the federal deficit of about $5.9 trillion in relief authorized by Congress, as calculated by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank.
Those figures don’t include about $700 billion authorized by Biden and former president Donald Trump in the form of actions like disaster assistance and tax relief, moves which have limited impact on future deficits — about $100 billion.
They also don’t include the $3.3 trillion and counting the Federal Reserve spent to stabilize the economy, largely through buying assets to inject cash into markets. Such purchases have almost doubled the size of the Fed’s immense balance sheet, but they don’t add to the deficit.
. . . Without big changes, such as the passage of Biden’s ambitious infrastructure and families plans, the economy is set for a bit of a bumpy landing after the expected boom of 2021 and 2022, one that will probably come just as the 2024 presidential campaigns are shifting into gear.
Chinese regulation on youth video game hours limits Roblox's growth prospects in the world's largest video game market
View above about Model Issue: Odds of market success conditional on previous market success and org Roblox Corporation and previous event outcome Not material and improvement over alternatives Not material and for customer Other age 5-24 in supported countries
Kids and teens under 18 years old in China will only be allowed up to three hours per week to play online video games, according to new rules published Monday by China’s National Press and Publication Administration.
“There are over 110 million minors that play video games in China today, and we expect the new limits to lead to a decline in the number of players and a reduction in the amount of time and money spent in game by those under 18,” Niko Partners senior analyst Daniel Ahmad said.
While Roblox has a small presence in China today, the new regulation dampens growth expectations within the world's biggest video game market. Roblox stock is down 5% on the news.
