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Next, we need to guesstimate what interest rates will be relative to inflation. Right now, the markets are discounting 1.0 percent for the next 10 years. That's a relatively low real yield compared to what it has been over the long-term and a modestly high real rate given the recent past. What is your guesstimate? My guesstimate, based on the amount of debt assets and liabilities outstanding, what the debt service costs would be for debtors, and what the real returns would mean for creditors, is for a real interest rate of between zero and one percent because that would be relatively high, but tolerable, for debtors and relatively low, but tolerable, for creditors.

Right now, the markets are discounting inflation over the next 10 years of 2.6 percent in the US. My guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5 percent to 5 percent long term, barring shocks (e.g., worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods) and significantly higher with shocks. In the near term, I expect inflation will fall slightly as past shocks resolve for some items (e.g., energy) and then will trend back up towards 4.5 percent to 5 percent over the medium term. I won't take you through how I arrived at that estimate (which I'm very uncertain about) because that would take too long. What's your guesstimate? Write it down.

. . . you walk away empty-handed most of the time, but if you look in your pocket, it's really full.

...the antithesis of simple.

Sam Savage says: If you’re about to play craps, do you waste your time trying to forecast the numbers on the individual dice or do you model that sevens are way more likely than twos or twelves when you roll two dice?

However, dermatologists are prescribing the drug off-label. The intended use for hair loss has not been approved by the FDA, and there still needs to be randomized, controlled trials to test efficacy. If it is eventually approved by FDA, HIMS can just add it to its generic portfolio, which already includes minoxidil spray