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The US government can peg Treasury rates unilaterally to fight the "war" on COVID, irrespective of big changes in inflation expectations, as it did during World War II
Research
View above about Model Issue: USD yield curve control?
- Supporting Evidence below from Mar 29, 2020 by Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates
- Posted on Aug 11, 2020 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
It’s worth understanding the mechanics of how the Fed kept rates down despite all the pressure for them to rise. It did that via yield curve control, which kept interest rates anchored even when there were massive shifts in growth, inflation, and government bond issuance. In the charts below you can see how long-term bond yields stayed stable around 2% through the huge economic swings of the war (with its massive growth boom and the price controls required to keep inflation from skyrocketing), the postwar slump, and the recovery that followed. Inflation reached a postwar extreme of close to 20% in 1947 and a low of about -3% in 1949, while yields barely budged.
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Paul Tudor Jones argues that tech companies have underpriced for a decade to achieve oligopolies and will raise prices in the next decade
Research
View above about Model Issue: 10-year USD inflation
- Supporting Evidence below from Mar 1, 2018 by Paul Tudor Jones, Tudor Investment Corporation
- Posted on Feb 11, 2021 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
On technology, what I’ve seen during this disinflationary period is the concentration of economic power into a few corporate hands. Once they have cleared the playing field of their competitors, they could ratchet up prices to decompress margins. So I am not sure these technological disruptions will continue to bring disinflation.
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In our first draft of HIMS, we see a ~25% chance of losing money against 25% odds of >25% return over 1 year, for a ~12% mean
Analysis
View above about Model Issue: HIMS Equity Value
Research Category:
Output Visualizations for Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
- Supporting Evidence below from Mar 29, 2021 by Dan Gahagan, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
- Posted on Mar 25, 2021 by Dan Gahagan, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
At a ~$2.4B equity value, we see ~40% chance of losing money against 1/3 odds of >2x over 5 years, for a ~1.6x mean return. At the 1 Year horizon, we see 25% odds of a >25% return against 25% odds of losing money, for a ~12% mean.
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BPN estimates there are approximately 13M men in the HIMS "Core Male" Market
Research
View above about Model Issue: Prospective subscribers in Core Male
Research Category:
TAM and Industry Trends for Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
- Supporting Evidence below from Mar 28, 2021
- Posted on Mar 29, 2021 by Jack Halsey, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Conditions in this market include erectile dysfunction, hair loss, and acne.
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BPN estimates there are ~20M women in HIMS' "Core Female" market
Research
View above about Model Issue: Prospective subscribers in Core Female
Research Category:
TAM and Industry Trends for Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
- Supporting Evidence below from Mar 28, 2021
- Posted on Mar 29, 2021 by Jack Halsey, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Treatments included are oral contraceptives, hair loss, and acne.
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BPN estimates there are ~7M individuals in HIMS' Mental Health Market
Research
View above about Model Issue: Prospective subscribers in Other Millennial Conditions
Research Category:
TAM and Industry Trends for Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
- Supporting Evidence below from Mar 29, 2021
- Posted on Mar 29, 2021 by Jack Halsey, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Anxiety and depression are the most common conditions in this segment.
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There are roughly 4.1M millennial men suffering from ED in the US
Research
View above about Model Issue: Prospective subscribers in Core Male
Research Category:
TAM and Industry Trends for Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
- Supporting Evidence below from Feb 16, 2021 by Daniel Grosslight, Citigroup Inc.
- Posted on Mar 29, 2021 by Jack Halsey, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Citi Research claims there are roughly 4.1M men under 40 who suffer from ED.

Citi Initiating Coverage Report
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60% of those with acne seek some form of treatment for their condition
Research
View above about Model Issue: Prospective subscribers in Core Male
Research Category:
TAM and Industry Trends for Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
- Supporting Evidence below from Jan 11, 2021 by Colorado Springs Dermatology Clinic
- Posted on Mar 29, 2021 by Jack Halsey, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
10% of those with acne consult a physician, 20% visit a skin care center, 30% use OTC products, and the remaining 40% seek no treatment at all.
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Men make up only 1/3 of those seeking treatment for acne
Research
View above about Model Issue: Prospective subscribers in Core Male
Research Category:
TAM and Industry Trends for Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
- Supporting Evidence below from Jan 1, 2010 by Brad A Yentzer, PubMed
- Posted on Mar 29, 2021 by Jack Halsey, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Women seek treatment for acne at much higher rates than men. Roughly 65% of all doctors visits for acne related issues were made by females.
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2/3 of those seeking treatment for acne are women
Research
View above about Model Issue: Prospective subscribers in Core Female
Research Category:
TAM and Industry Trends for Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
- Supporting Evidence below from Jan 1, 2010 by Brad A Yentzer, PubMed
- Posted on Mar 29, 2021 by Jack Halsey, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Women seek treatment for acne at much higher rates than men. Roughly 65% of all doctors visits for acne related issues were made by females.
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