Page for Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
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Ukraine's experience cautions Taiwanese about relying on sanctions for deterrence or the US for direct military intervention
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
Yet the war also brings two sobering thoughts. One is that neither the threat of sanctions nor the West’s arming of Ukraine deterred Russia. The other is that Russia’s nuclear threats have deterred America from intervening directly. China, too, has nuclear weapons. Contradictory emotions are apparent in a poll by the Taiwan Centre for International Strategic Studies, a think-tank. It showed a startling jump in the share of Taiwanese willing to fight to defend Taiwan, from 40% in December to 70% in March. A similar percentage supported extending the conscription period, a move currently under debate. But confidence that America would intervene has dropped markedly, from 55% to 43%. Scarcely a third of respondents thought Taiwan could hold off an invasion alone.
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On Monday, Chinese foreign ministry officials staked a Chinese claim over the Taiwan Strait . . .
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
. . . the body of water separating China from the main island of Taiwan. Foreign nations have in recent years sailed warships through the strait on freedom of navigation exercises, prompting anger from Beijing.
Most countries have formal diplomatic relations with China and not Taiwan, but Taiwan has key defensive agreements with the US and broad support from other world governments.
On Monday the ministry’s foreign affairs spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said China had “sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait”, accusing other countries which called the strait international waters of making false claims “in order to find a pretext for manipulating issues related to Taiwan and threatening China’s sovereignty and security”.
The US state department spokesperson, Ned Price, told Reuters the strait was an international waterway with high seas freedoms guaranteed under international law. He reiterated US concerns about China’s “aggressive rhetoric and coercive activity regarding Taiwan” and said the US “would continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, and that includes transiting through the Taiwan Strait”.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Joanne Ou, called China’s position a “fallacy” and said US freedom of navigation exercises had Taiwan’s support.
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After Pelosi's highest-ranking US visit to Taiwan in 25 years, China fired 9 missiles over Taiwan, incl. 5 that landed in Japanese waters
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
China claims Taiwan, a self-governing democracy off its southern coast, as its own territory. It regards any visit by an American politician as an affront, let alone one by Ms. Pelosi, the highest-ranking U.S. official to go there since 1997.
During her visit to Taiwan this week, Ms. Pelosi had met with Taiwan’s president, lawmakers and human rights activists, hailing the island’s commitment to democracy. She kept up her criticism of Beijing on Friday, saying in Tokyo that China “may try to keep Taiwan from visiting or participating in other places but they will not isolate Taiwan.”
. . . China had fired five missiles on Thursday that landed in waters claimed by Japan for its exclusive economic use. Mr. Kishida said the drills were having “a serious impact on the peace and stability of the region and the world,” Kyodo News reported.
On Friday, China’s Eastern Theater Command said it deployed fighter jets, bombers and other aircraft to areas around Taiwan to carry out combat exercises. The command’s navy dispatched more than 10 destroyers and escort ships to the waters near Taiwan, approaching from different directions to carry out what state media described as “containment and control operations.”
. . . Besides demonstrating Beijing’s displeasure with her visit, the drills — which China has said would be held in six zones encircling Taiwan — appear to have been designed as a trial run for sealing off the island as part of a potential invasion. China’s leaders, including the current one, Xi Jinping, have long said that Taiwan must eventually be brought under Beijing’s control, by force if necessary.
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Chinese Foreign Minister: Beijing will “smash the Taiwan authorities’ fantasy of ‘relying on the United States to seek independence.’”
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
A large number of Chinese military aircraft and ships crossed the halfway mark of the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a simulated land strike on the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own.
The maneuvers came on the third day of a promised four-day series of military drills by China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei earlier this week.
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Russian and China appear to be working together on cyberattacks against Taiwan this week
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
Joanne Ou, a spokeswoman for Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry, said Thursday that attacks on its website and the government’s English-language portal were tied to Chinese and Russian internet protocol addresses that attempted to access the websites as many as 8.5 million times per minute, making them inaccessible to users.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office and Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn’t respond to requests for comment.
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China could accelerate plans to take Taiwan to counteract new severe limits on China's access to US semiconductor production technology
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
The Biden administration’s new restrictions on technology exports to China could undercut the country’s ability to develop wide swaths of its economy, from semiconductors and supercomputers to surveillance systems and advanced weapons.
The US Commerce Department on Friday unveiled sweeping regulations that limit the sale of semiconductors and chip-making equipment to Chinese customers, striking at the foundation of the country’s efforts to build its own chip industry. The agency also added 31 organizations to its unverified list, including Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. and a subsidiary of leading chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group Co., severely limiting their ability to buy technology from abroad.
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The commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command said China wants to take over Taiwan by 2028
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
In March of last year, Admiral Philip Davidson, then commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that China wanted to take Taiwan “during this decade, in fact, in the next six years.”
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US Secretary of State just said that China wants to seize Taiwan on a "much faster timeline"
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years. China had made a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable, and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline.
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China's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine may become more explicit with shipments of Chinese offensive weapons to Russia
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
U.S. officials say China is considering delivering artillery and drones to Russian forces that could prolong the war, even as Beijing called for peace talks to end the fighting on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The officials said no weapons deliveries have yet taken place. But, if China were to go ahead and deliver lethal aid to Russia, the resulting tensions could shape Western relations with Beijing for years and potentially have profound consequences on the battlefield in Ukraine, at a point when both sides are gearing up for a spring offensive.
U.S. officials familiar with intelligence reports say that if Beijing opts to provide weapons, it would also include artillery in addition to drones and possibly other weapons to help Russian forces stave off an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive this summer.
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Historian Niall Ferguson argues that China has decided to wage war on the US and is only using diplomacy to widen its window to prepare
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
World War III is the bad outcome that we should worry about.
. . . When a totalitarian regime senses that its future is not bright, it is more likely, not less likely, to take strategic risk. Xi Jinping knows as well as we do, perhaps better, just how serious are the problems that face the Chinese Communist Party, demographic problems, debt problems, a much lower growth rate than they have been accustomed to now since the 1980s, and he also knows that, in many ways, the world has woken up, the United States has woken up, to the strategic challenge posed by China. What that means is that the window of opportunity for him to consolidate his achievement, to match Mao Zedong, is not that wide, and it’s closing.
. . . Since the Party Congress, he has turned his attention to military preparedness in the belief that a showdown with the United States is inevitable, and what is going on at the moment is a kind of dual track strategy, where they send Liu He to Davos, they talk the talk of detente, but at the same time, they are busily preparing for conflict. That, I think, is the reality.
. . . The key point I would make is, under these circumstances, we should not expect Cold War II to stay cold. It is going to heat up, because I sense that from the Chinese side, from Xi Jinping’s side, they are on a path to war. We don’t yet realize that.
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