Page for Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
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Ukraine's experience cautions Taiwanese about relying on sanctions for deterrence or the US for direct military intervention
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
- Supporting Evidence below from Apr 21, 2022 by The Economist
- Posted on Apr 26, 2022 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Yet the war also brings two sobering thoughts. One is that neither the threat of sanctions nor the West’s arming of Ukraine deterred Russia. The other is that Russia’s nuclear threats have deterred America from intervening directly. China, too, has nuclear weapons. Contradictory emotions are apparent in a poll by the Taiwan Centre for International Strategic Studies, a think-tank. It showed a startling jump in the share of Taiwanese willing to fight to defend Taiwan, from 40% in December to 70% in March. A similar percentage supported extending the conscription period, a move currently under debate. But confidence that America would intervene has dropped markedly, from 55% to 43%. Scarcely a third of respondents thought Taiwan could hold off an invasion alone.
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On Monday, Chinese foreign ministry officials staked a Chinese claim over the Taiwan Strait . . .
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
- Supporting Evidence below from Jun 15, 2022 by Helen Davidson, Guardian News and Media Limited
- Posted on Jun 30, 2022 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
. . . the body of water separating China from the main island of Taiwan. Foreign nations have in recent years sailed warships through the strait on freedom of navigation exercises, prompting anger from Beijing.
Most countries have formal diplomatic relations with China and not Taiwan, but Taiwan has key defensive agreements with the US and broad support from other world governments.
On Monday the ministry’s foreign affairs spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said China had “sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait”, accusing other countries which called the strait international waters of making false claims “in order to find a pretext for manipulating issues related to Taiwan and threatening China’s sovereignty and security”.
The US state department spokesperson, Ned Price, told Reuters the strait was an international waterway with high seas freedoms guaranteed under international law. He reiterated US concerns about China’s “aggressive rhetoric and coercive activity regarding Taiwan” and said the US “would continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, and that includes transiting through the Taiwan Strait”.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Joanne Ou, called China’s position a “fallacy” and said US freedom of navigation exercises had Taiwan’s support.
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After Pelosi's highest-ranking US visit to Taiwan in 25 years, China fired 9 missiles over Taiwan, incl. 5 that landed in Japanese waters
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
- Supporting Evidence below from Aug 4, 2022 by Jane Perlez, New York Times Company
- Posted on Aug 5, 2022 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
China claims Taiwan, a self-governing democracy off its southern coast, as its own territory. It regards any visit by an American politician as an affront, let alone one by Ms. Pelosi, the highest-ranking U.S. official to go there since 1997.
During her visit to Taiwan this week, Ms. Pelosi had met with Taiwan’s president, lawmakers and human rights activists, hailing the island’s commitment to democracy. She kept up her criticism of Beijing on Friday, saying in Tokyo that China “may try to keep Taiwan from visiting or participating in other places but they will not isolate Taiwan.”
. . . China had fired five missiles on Thursday that landed in waters claimed by Japan for its exclusive economic use. Mr. Kishida said the drills were having “a serious impact on the peace and stability of the region and the world,” Kyodo News reported.
On Friday, China’s Eastern Theater Command said it deployed fighter jets, bombers and other aircraft to areas around Taiwan to carry out combat exercises. The command’s navy dispatched more than 10 destroyers and escort ships to the waters near Taiwan, approaching from different directions to carry out what state media described as “containment and control operations.”
. . . Besides demonstrating Beijing’s displeasure with her visit, the drills — which China has said would be held in six zones encircling Taiwan — appear to have been designed as a trial run for sealing off the island as part of a potential invasion. China’s leaders, including the current one, Xi Jinping, have long said that Taiwan must eventually be brought under Beijing’s control, by force if necessary.
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Chinese Foreign Minister: Beijing will “smash the Taiwan authorities’ fantasy of ‘relying on the United States to seek independence.’”
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
- Supporting Evidence below from Aug 6, 2022 by Karen Hao, Wall Street Journal
- Posted on Aug 7, 2022 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
A large number of Chinese military aircraft and ships crossed the halfway mark of the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a simulated land strike on the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own.
The maneuvers came on the third day of a promised four-day series of military drills by China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei earlier this week.
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Russian and China appear to be working together on cyberattacks against Taiwan this week
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan by 2025 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
- Supporting Evidence below from Aug 8, 2022 by Joanne Ou, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan)
- Posted on Aug 9, 2022 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Joanne Ou, a spokeswoman for Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry, said Thursday that attacks on its website and the government’s English-language portal were tied to Chinese and Russian internet protocol addresses that attempted to access the websites as many as 8.5 million times per minute, making them inaccessible to users.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office and Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn’t respond to requests for comment.
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