Page for Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
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Xi Jinpeng is 68 and appears to want Taiwan to become part of China during his lifetime
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
Nothing Mr Xi learns from foreign examples is likely to alter his fundamental approach. He still favours reunification without fighting, but is prepared to use force, particularly if Taiwan makes a dash for independence. The signs are that China’s leader, who is 68, wants to achieve unification within his lifetime, ahead of his stated goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049, the centenary of the communist victory. Events in Ukraine are unlikely to change his conviction that China has a window to achieve its goals while America is divided at home and struggling to restore credibility abroad after decades of failed interventions and erratic foreign policy. And though some American alliances have been revitalised of late, Mr Xi may be heartened by the prospect of Russia preoccupying the Pentagon for years—just as wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria did for much of the past two decades.
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China's army is undertaking reforms that may make a Taiwan invasion harder in the near-term but easier after 2027
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
The People’s Liberation Army (pla) has not fought a war since its border conflict with Vietnam in 1979. Its leaders worry about “peacetime disease”. A Pentagon report notes that it is undergoing extensive reforms that could hamper its combat readiness until 2027 (but give it better options thereafter).
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In response to the Economist's article, China's government doubled down on assertion that Taiwan is part of China and China will control it
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
The issue of Ukraine is an international dispute between two sovereign nations. The issue of Taiwan is purely an internal affair of China and is completely different in nature. There is only one China. Taiwan is an inseparable part of China’s territory, and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing the whole of China. The one-China principle is the extensive consensus of the international community.
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Tufts and Johns Hopkins scholars think China will attack Taiwan in the mid-to-late 2020s because its power relative to the US will peak
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
But between now and the end of the decade, China has a tantalizing opportunity to secure unification by force. Mr. Xi’s reforms of the PLA—meant, among other things, to make it capable of taking Taiwan—are nearly complete. China is rapidly deploying missiles, aircraft, warships and rocket launchers that can pummel Taiwan; it is assiduously rehearsing large-scale amphibious assaults.
Meanwhile, U.S. military power is about to dip. The mid-2020s will witness the mass retirement of aging U.S. cruisers, guided-missile submarines and long-range bombers, leaving the U.S. military with hundreds fewer missile launchers—the key metric of modern naval firepower—floating and flying around East Asia. While Washington, Tokyo and Taipei are all undertaking much-needed defense programs focused on denying Chinese hegemony in Asia, those efforts won’t bear fruit until the early 2030s. Mr. Xi has repeatedly said that the task of “liberating” Taiwan cannot be passed down from generation to generation. In the mid- and late 2020s, he’ll have his best chance to accomplish that mission.
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Pentagon still assesses China will not invade Taiwan in the next 2 years, despite China's military actions this week after Pelosi visit
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View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
The Pentagon has not changed its assessment that China is not planning to invade Taiwan in the next two years, the Defense Department’s top policy office said Monday, despite Beijing’s launching unprecedented military drills around the island last week.
In answer to a question about whether the military has a new assessment as to whether China will take Taiwan by force in the next two years given the events of the last week, Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, said succinctly: “No.”
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