Page for Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
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Xi Jinpeng is 68 and appears to want Taiwan to become part of China during his lifetime
Research
View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
- Supporting Evidence below from Apr 21, 2022 by The Economist
- Posted on Apr 26, 2022 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Nothing Mr Xi learns from foreign examples is likely to alter his fundamental approach. He still favours reunification without fighting, but is prepared to use force, particularly if Taiwan makes a dash for independence. The signs are that China’s leader, who is 68, wants to achieve unification within his lifetime, ahead of his stated goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049, the centenary of the communist victory. Events in Ukraine are unlikely to change his conviction that China has a window to achieve its goals while America is divided at home and struggling to restore credibility abroad after decades of failed interventions and erratic foreign policy. And though some American alliances have been revitalised of late, Mr Xi may be heartened by the prospect of Russia preoccupying the Pentagon for years—just as wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria did for much of the past two decades.
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China's army is undertaking reforms that may make a Taiwan invasion harder in the near-term but easier after 2027
Research
View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
- Supporting Evidence below from Apr 21, 2022 by The Economist
- Posted on Apr 26, 2022 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
The People’s Liberation Army (pla) has not fought a war since its border conflict with Vietnam in 1979. Its leaders worry about “peacetime disease”. A Pentagon report notes that it is undergoing extensive reforms that could hamper its combat readiness until 2027 (but give it better options thereafter).
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In response to the Economist's article, China's government doubled down on assertion that Taiwan is part of China and China will control it
Research
View above about Model Issue: Odds that China invades Taiwan in 2026-2030 if International action reverses invasion of Kyiv
- Supporting Evidence below from Apr 28, 2022 by Zeng Rong, Chinese government
- Posted on May 3, 2022 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
The issue of Ukraine is an international dispute between two sovereign nations. The issue of Taiwan is purely an internal affair of China and is completely different in nature. There is only one China. Taiwan is an inseparable part of China’s territory, and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing the whole of China. The one-China principle is the extensive consensus of the international community.
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