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Nothing Mr Xi learns from foreign examples is likely to alter his fundamental approach. He still favours reunification without fighting, but is prepared to use force, particularly if Taiwan makes a dash for independence. The signs are that China’s leader, who is 68, wants to achieve unification within his lifetime, ahead of his stated goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049, the centenary of the communist victory. Events in Ukraine are unlikely to change his conviction that China has a window to achieve its goals while America is divided at home and struggling to restore credibility abroad after decades of failed interventions and erratic foreign policy. And though some American alliances have been revitalised of late, Mr Xi may be heartened by the prospect of Russia preoccupying the Pentagon for years—just as wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria did for much of the past two decades.

The People’s Liberation Army (pla) has not fought a war since its border conflict with Vietnam in 1979. Its leaders worry about “peacetime disease”. A Pentagon report notes that it is undergoing extensive reforms that could hamper its combat readiness until 2027 (but give it better options thereafter).

The Taiwan issue bears on China’s core interests and we will brook no external interference. Resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving the complete reunification of China is the common wish and firm will of all Chinese people and is a historical trend that no one can stop. China will do its utmost to promote the peaceful reunification of the motherland but will never allow anyone to split Taiwan from China in any way. No one should underestimate the strong resolve and capability of the Chinese people in safeguarding the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

But between now and the end of the decade, China has a tantalizing opportunity to secure unification by force. Mr. Xi’s reforms of the PLA—meant, among other things, to make it capable of taking Taiwan—are nearly complete. China is rapidly deploying missiles, aircraft, warships and rocket launchers that can pummel Taiwan; it is assiduously rehearsing large-scale amphibious assaults.

The Pentagon has not changed its assessment that China is not planning to invade Taiwan in the next two years, the Defense Department’s top policy office said Monday, despite Beijing’s launching unprecedented military drills around the island last week.